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01.03.08
SEM Predictions For 2008
 By
Kent Lewis
For the past two years, Ive put forth predictions for
the SEM industry. You can judge the accuracy of the 2006 and 2007 predictions for yourself and determine...
...whether its worth reading my 2008 SEM predictions. If you like them, Ill take all the credit. If not, blame the rest of the Anvil Media team, as it was all their ideas. Enjoy.
Everything Search Engine Marketing
Lets start with the most obvious one firsteverything related to the search engine marketing industry is going to continue to grow, if not thrive, in 2008. Everything in this case includes search engine optimization (SEO), pay-per-click (PPC), online reputation management (ORM), SEM PR and my favorite, social media optimization (SMO) which merits its own category (see below). ORM will rise to the top of the media buzz-o-meter with big brands and celebrities hiring firms like Anvil to make negative search results disappear. Online ad spending will continue to increase significantly (up $6 billion over 2007) as traditional ad spending levels off due to the fear of an economic downturn. If youre not in the SEM industry now, you may not be able to ignore the pending recession.
Online Advertising Options Evolve
Display advertising may see a re-emergence as brand budgets move online in search of better measurability. While rich media ads will continue to have a seat at the table, in-text advertising will be the big winner in 2008. Key players like Kontera and Vibrant Media will cash checks when consumers test and accept the relatively new contextual advertising model. Googles $700 stock price is proof that contextual advertising can work.
Google Cross-Platform Bid Management Tool
Google will launch (we hope) a cross-platform bid management tool (API based; to work across engine platforms including Yahoo Search Marketing & MSN AdCenter). This prediction is based on the move Google made this year to allow AdWords advertisers to opt-in to the new Conversion Optimizer and the technology/interface they have continued to develop with AdWords Editor. Watch out third party vendors like Atlas, SendTec, and SearchForce! Google could end up disrupting the bid management industry like it did with Web analytics when it purchased Urchin and gave away the platform as Google Analytics. It looks like Omniture could get stung twice as badly, offering products and services in both markets.
Mobile " No, Seriously This Time
Apples iPhone stole the show at CES in early 2007and Steve Jobs and his phone werent even there. Since then, the buzz has set new standards and consumer expectations. Phone manufacturers and carriers are now forced to step up with more advanced technology that will get the US out of the Stone Age (in comparison to the rest of the world). That means SMS text messaging will gain in popularity and usage (especially by smart restaurants, hotels and retailers). Additionally, mobile advertising will reach $5 billion in 2008 (up from $3 billion in 2007), fueled in part by search-based ads.
Social Media
US ad spending on Web 2.0 social networks will climb to nearly $1.6 billion in 2008which is a significant increase over 2007. That said, the long-term success of social media sites will rely on the ability to manage one profile (yours) across a multitude of sites. Lacking that key ingredient, only a handful of existing social media sites will survive. Assuming portable profiles dont come to fruition in 2008, we predict MySpace, Hi5 and other spam-friendly sites will die on the vine (at least increase user growth at a decreasing rate), while other startups social media sites like Spoke, Doostang, Spock and Biznik will fail to find enough traffic or revenue to survive the year (certainly not beyond 2009). Facebook will struggle to find a viable business model (certainly the initial foray into advertising is generating a negative response from users), but the open API will continue to fuel growth. LinkedIn will gain ground and become the de-facto Web 2.0 social network site for business professionals (followed in a distant second by Plaxo). In a massive consolidation move, Google, MSN and Yahoo will continue to buy up social media properties, if for no other reason than to kill them off. Lastly, social media optimization (SMO) will experience significant adoption by B2B marketers, which is important because the Webs significant growth has been fueled by businesses and not consumers.
Continue reading this article.
About the Author:
Kent Lewis is a regular contributor to Search Marketing Standard Magazine blog and is the President of Anvil Media, Inc., a search engine marketing firm based on Portland, Oregon. He speaks regularly at industry conferences and covers emarketing-related topics for a variety of industry publications.
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